Why Do New Coins Always Go to Zero? Crypto Investor Deep Dive into VC Bubble
原文标题:The Great Crypto VC Bubble: Why Every New Token Trends to Zero
原文作者:0xLouisT,L1D 投资合伙人
原文编译:DeepSeek
编者按:文章分析了加密货币行业中山寨币价值趋零的现象,追溯其根源至 2021 年的风投泡沫,指出 ICO 热潮(2017-2018)因监管打击而衰落后,创始人转向机构投资者,导致 2021-2022 年风投激增,资金过剩推高了低质量项目的估值;2022 年市场崩盘后,风投面临 LPs 压力和资本错配,激励机制从长期愿景转向短期退出,致使 2021-2023 年风投表现不佳,同时创始人开始探索社区筹资和流动基金等替代路径,而风投与流动市场的周期性变化也揭示了资本流动的深层问题。
以下为原文内容(为便于阅读理解,原内容有所整编):
山寨币正在失血——为什么?高 FDV?CEX 上线?币安和 Coinbase 是否应该直接将他们的资金通过 TWAP 投入新代币?
真正的罪魁祸首并不意外。一切都可以追溯到 2021 年的加密货币风投泡沫。
在本文中,我将分解我们是如何走到这一步的。在接下来的文章中,我将探讨这对项目、流动市场、未来趋势的影响,并为当前环境下建设的创始人提供建议。
ICO 热潮(2017-2018)
加密货币本质上是一个流动性极高的行业——项目可以随时发行代币,代表任何东西,处于任何阶段。直到 2017 年,大部分活动都发生在公开市场上,任何人都可以通过 CEX 直接购买。
然后迎来了 ICO 泡沫:一个充满狂热投机的时代,很快就被诈骗者劫持。它像所有经典泡沫一样结束:诉讼、欺骗和监管打击。美国证券交易委员会(SEC)介入,使 ICO 几乎成为非法。那些想避开美国司法系统的创始人不得不寻找其他筹资方式。

风投热潮(2021-2022)
散户被切断后,创始人转向了机构投资者。从 2018 年到 2020 年,加密货币风投逐渐增长——一些公司是纯粹的风投机构,其他则是对冲基金,将其管理资产(AUM)的一小部分分配给风投押注。那时,投资山寨币是逆向思维——许多人认为它们都会归零。
然后到了 2021 年。牛市让风投组合账面价值飙升。到 4 月,基金回报达到 20 倍甚至 100 倍。加密货币风投突然看起来像是印钞机。有限合伙人(LPs)蜂拥而入,急于赶上下波浪潮。风投公司募集的新基金规模是之前的 10 倍甚至 100 倍,坚信他们能复制那些超额收益。

数据来源:Galaxy Research
还有一些心理原因解释了为何风投对有限合伙人如此受欢迎,我在之前的文章中提到过:

宿醉期(2022-2024)
然后 2022 年来袭:Luna、3AC、FTX。数十亿的账面收益一夜蒸发。
与普遍看法相反,大多数风投并未在顶部抛售。他们和其他人一样经历了崩盘。如今,他们面临两大问题:
· 受挫的有限合伙人:曾经为 100 倍回报欢呼的有限合伙人现在要求退出,迫使基金更早降低风险并锁定利润。
· 资金过多:风投的未投资资本超过了优质项目的数量。许多基金没有将资金退还给有限合伙人,而是将钱投入到经济上不合理的项目中,只是为了用尽剩余资本,达到门槛并为下一轮基金募集做准备。

大多数加密货币风投现在陷入困境——无法募集新基金,手里拿着注定执行「高 FDV 抛售归零」剧本的低质量项目。在有限合伙人的压力下,风投从长期愿景者转向短期退出追逐者,不断以他们自己推高的不合理估值抛售大型风投支持的代币(另类 L1、L2、基础设施代币)。
换句话说,加密货币风投的激励机制和时间框架发生了显著变化:
· 2020 年:风投是逆向思维者,现金匮乏,注重长期。
· 2024 年:风投市场拥挤,资本过剩,短期导向。
我认为 2021-2023 年的风投年份大多会表现不佳。风投回报遵循幂律分布,少数赢家弥补了输家。但被迫提前抛售将扭曲结果,导致整体表现疲软。
如果想了解更多关于风投回报平均数据的信息,我曾发过一篇帖子:

毫不奇怪,创始人和社区对风投越来越怀疑。他们的激励机制和时间表与创始人的目标不一致,导致趋势转向:
· 社区驱动的筹资
· 流动基金长期支持代币,而非风投
评估流动/风投周期
追踪风投和流动市场之间的资本流动至关重要。我使用一个指标来评估风投市场的状态。它并非完美,但很有用。
我假设风投在三年内线性部署 70% 的资金——这似乎是大多数风投的趋势。

风投三年线性部署可视化
使用 @glxyresearch 的风投募资数据,我应用加权和,考虑 16 个季度的部署率。这估计了系统中剩余的未投资资本。2022 年第四季度,约有 480 亿美元的风投未投资资本——这个数字至少减半,且随着新募资停滞继续下降。

风投未投资资本可视化
接下来,我将每个季度的剩余风投未投资资本与 TOTAL2(除比特币外的加密货币总市值)进行比较。由于风投通常投资于山寨币,这是最佳代理。如果相对于 TOTAL2 的未投资资本过多,市场无法吸收未来的 TGE。标准化这些数据揭示了流动/风投比率的周期性本质。

通常,处于「风投狂热」区域表明流动市场的风险调整回报优于风投。「风投投降」区域则更复杂——可能意味着风投投降或流动市场过热。
像所有市场一样,加密货币风投和流动市场遵循周期。2021/2022 年的过剩资本正在迅速耗尽,使创始人的募资更加困难。风投现金短缺,对交易和条款变得更加挑剔。

总结
· 风投在最近的年份表现不佳,转向短期抛售以向有限合伙人返还资本。许多知名的加密货币风投可能无法熬过未来几年。
· 风投与创始人之间的目标错位正推动创始人转向替代资金来源。
· 风投资本的过剩导致了糟糕的分配。
「原文链接」
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