Glassnode co-founder: Bitcoin may have reached a bottom range, with a high probability that the bottom is between $46,000 and $54,000

Glassnode co-founder Rafael posted an analysis of the recent Bitcoin price trend on the X platform, noting that the current Bitcoin price is in the $62,000 range, having dropped nearly 50% from its all-time high, with a decline of 24% over the past month. The price has crossed the upper range of its pricing framework, entering a valuation cluster area where historical cycles have previously shown bottoms.

Rafael further pointed out that market bottoms cannot be confirmed in advance and can only be defined through probability ranges and key price levels to identify potential bottom signals. Bitcoin has fallen below the median holder breakeven line for the first time since December 2022, currently situated within a broader support range: the median realized price is approximately $64,100, and the 200-week moving average price is around $61,700.

The current high-probability bottom range may be between $46,000 and $54,000, with a rare "sell-off tail" below that range of $35,000 to $40,000. It is important to note that the magnitude of cyclical pullbacks is gradually decreasing: previous rounds of lows saw declines of about 85%, 84%, and 77%, while this round has only dropped about 50%, indicating that a high-probability bottom is more likely to be in the upper range, though extreme sell-off possibilities cannot be ruled out.