Cardano – Evaluating if there REALLY is a ‘75% chance’ of ADA Spot ETF launch this year
By: ambcrypto|2025/05/02 20:15:01
0
Share
There is a 75% chance of a Cardano ETF launching this year ADA might stay stuck in neutral, while the rest of the market waits for that green light Normally, when Bitcoin smashes through its resistance level, big money flows into high-cap alts, sparking a chain reaction of breakouts. Not this time though. Despite BTC’s strength and the crypto market cap bouncing by 2.11% back to $3 trillion, Cardano [ADA] – and most top alts – are still dragging below their late Q1 highs. What’s missing? One word – ETFs (Exchange Traded Funds). They’ve become the market’s go-to engine for altcoin hype. According to Bloomberg analysts , ADA has a 75% shot at landing its own ETF this year. Not bad, but Solana and XRP are still ahead, each boasting a flashy 90% chance. Hence, the question – Does ADA have the on-chain muscle to back up that optimism, or is this ETF dream still a bit of a stretch? Can Cardano turn lag into leadership? At press time, Bitcoin had bulldozed past its March resistance at $96k, with the crypto already testing $97k for the first time in over two months. Meanwhile, Cardano is exactly where it was a month ago, still struggling to reclaim the $0.80-zone. Usually, this kind of lag sets the stage for altcoin catch-up rallies. However, ADA isn’t playing along. Why? Because every time it flirts with $0.70, one thing happens – Profit-takers flood the market. Its Transaction Volume in Profit-to-Loss Ratio spikes like clockwork, showing that as soon as ADA gets some upward momentum, a wave of holders starts cashing out. Additionally, Cardano’s NVT ratio just hit a three-month high, and you’ve got a situation where network value has been outpacing actual transaction activity. In other words, the altcoin’s price might be getting ahead of itself. Source: Santiment Taken together, these metrics highlighted a clear underlying weakness – Buyers aren’t stepping up, capital inflows are sluggish, and resistance at the top keeps slamming the brakes on any rally attempt. If this keeps up, a correction may beat the breakout to the finish line. In this context, even the 75% odds of a Cardano ETF, while promising on paper, may seem optimistic without stronger on-chain support. The ETF race no altcoin wants to lose The TOTAL3 index, which tracks the total crypto market cap excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum, is now approaching a critical supply wall, suggesting potential resistance for altcoins . At the same time, Bitcoin’s dominance is close to 65% – A level that historically signals capital concentration in BTC and potential outflows from altcoins. Source: TradingView (BTC.D) According to AMBCrypto, with liquidity thinning across non-BTC, non-ETH assets, the need for institutional inflows into altcoins is more pressing than ever. This sets the stage for the intensifying ETF race, as altcoins seek to stay competitive in an increasingly BTC-heavy market landscape. Right now, momentum seems to be favoring Solana [SOL] , as evidenced by Bloomberg analysts assigning a 90% probability to the launch of a Solana ETF. Moreover, the TRUMP memecoin launch on the Solana network has further reinforced its position as a key contender for institutional capital and ETF approval. Therefore, for Cardano to remain competitive, it is crucial to reclaim overhead resistance zones. Failure to do so risks losing ground to competing altcoins. The first altcoin to secure SEC approval for an ETF will certainly gain a lead in market momentum. Share Share Tweet
You may also like

Stablecoin mergers: there will be no "winner takes all"
Dialogue with the founder of Dynamic: See how embedded wallets and stablecoins break down technical barriers, allowing businesses to create a "global version of Venmo" within hours, reshaping the trillion-dollar payment infrastructure.

Warmonger Trump has forgotten about Americans waiting in airport lines for hours
Feeling down? Just watch the American TSA Agent who takes out a loan every day to go to work now

Houthi Have a Checkpoint | Rewire News Morning Brief
Over 40 Foreign Diplomats Discussing Reopening Trade Route, U.S. Refuses to Attend

The Money-Saving Philosophy of the AI Era: How to Spend Every Token Wisely
The unit of billing has changed time and again, but the instinct to save money has remained constant throughout history.

$240 Billion Dark Forest, The Fall of Iron Finance
Prince Group's key member Li Xiong escorted back to China, bringing an end to an underground financial empire thriving on Telegram.

3 hellos limit, where did your Claude Code limit go? A 28-day cache Bug, and an official response that encourages you to "use it sparingly."
The credit limit of premium users evaporates at a rate 10-20 times faster, and the official response is to ask you to use it more sparingly.

How to Make Money on Polymarket Using AI?
Polymarket is the wallet, Claude is the brain, Perplexity is the eye

Morning Report | YZi Labs strategically increases investment in Predict.fun; Drift Protocol suffers an attack with losses of at least $200 million; Coinbase's x402 joins the Linux Foundation
Overview of Important Market Events on April 2nd

The $590 Billion Dream: How Did the Female Warren Buffett Fall from Grace?
At the height of her success, she was destroyed by her own success.

Dialogue with the founder of Pantera: Bitcoin has reached escape velocity, traditional assets are being left behind
If you have no exposure to blockchain, in a way, you are already shorting this trend.

The growth dilemma of Base: everything was done right, yet users still leave
Even with 100 million potential users, if there is nothing worth staying for, it will ultimately still be empty.

Predicting the World Cup "Showdown": Over 150 projects are gearing up, with a total investment of nearly 6 billion dollars
In the current situation where new projects are constantly emerging, it is necessary to be particularly vigilant against the risk of being "reversed."

RootData launches the "A-Level Transparency Project Briefing," directly reaching the cryptocurrency listing decision-making chain
This briefing will reach out to institutional personnel involved in or leading the Listing work and collaborative research partners from VC institutions through the industry partner network.

What does DeFi look like that Wall Street wants?
Replacing traditional finance has never been an option on Wall Street, but rather can be done in another parallel world, where capital, risk, and return can be reorganized more flexibly in a programmable way.

Drift Protocol Hack: Understanding One of the Largest Solana Ecosystem Breaches
Key Takeaways Drift Protocol, a decentralized exchange on Solana, experienced a $270 million hack, making it one of…

Navigating the Drift Protocol Security Incident: What You Need to Know
Key Takeaways On April 2, Drift Protocol experienced a security breach where a malicious actor gained administrative control.…

Upbit and Bithumb Designate DRIFT as a Trading Alert Item
Key Takeaways Upbit and Bithumb have labeled DRIFT as a “trading alert” asset following guidance from the Digital…

“Brother Maji” Faces Potential Liquidation with ETH Long Position
Key Takeaways “Brother Maji” currently holds a substantial 25x leveraged long position of 6,000 ETH. The position was…
Stablecoin mergers: there will be no "winner takes all"
Dialogue with the founder of Dynamic: See how embedded wallets and stablecoins break down technical barriers, allowing businesses to create a "global version of Venmo" within hours, reshaping the trillion-dollar payment infrastructure.
Warmonger Trump has forgotten about Americans waiting in airport lines for hours
Feeling down? Just watch the American TSA Agent who takes out a loan every day to go to work now
Houthi Have a Checkpoint | Rewire News Morning Brief
Over 40 Foreign Diplomats Discussing Reopening Trade Route, U.S. Refuses to Attend
The Money-Saving Philosophy of the AI Era: How to Spend Every Token Wisely
The unit of billing has changed time and again, but the instinct to save money has remained constant throughout history.
$240 Billion Dark Forest, The Fall of Iron Finance
Prince Group's key member Li Xiong escorted back to China, bringing an end to an underground financial empire thriving on Telegram.
3 hellos limit, where did your Claude Code limit go? A 28-day cache Bug, and an official response that encourages you to "use it sparingly."
The credit limit of premium users evaporates at a rate 10-20 times faster, and the official response is to ask you to use it more sparingly.
