Arthur Hayes' Latest Interview: ETH Will Reach New All-Time High, Circle IPO Not Worth Investing
原文标题:Arthur Hayes on Why Tariffs Will Be Good for Bitcoin and Crypto
原文来源:Unchained
原文整理:比推 BitpushNews

播客嘉宾:BitMEX 联创、Maelstrom CIO Arthur Hayes
摘要:在本次播客节目中,Arthur Hayes 讨论了特朗普的关税政策、比特币将受益于全球流动性宽松政策,他认为以太坊是最被低估的主流 L1,将先于 SOL 回到历史峰值,谨慎看多 SOL,并讨论了对 USDC 发行商 Circle 申请 IPO 的看法。
以下为访谈内容整理:
主持人:您如何看待特朗普的关税政策?谁会是这场关税战的赢家和输家?
Arthur Hayes: 首先我会摒弃对经济政策的道德评判,专注于适应形势并从中获利。问题的好坏总是相对的,与其情绪化不如调整投资组合。
如果特朗普真想将每年数万亿美元的逆差归零,并向支持他的人证明其政策见效,那么当前举措完全合理。
但硬币的另一面是:当日本等国通过出口赚取美元后,为维持本币低估,它们不会将美元兑换回本币,而是购买美国金融资产(主要是美债和美股)。这正是过去 20-30 年美国市场表现远超全球的原因,也是美债收益率在债务规模增长 7 倍后仍与 30 年前持平的关键。
特朗普试图打破这种循环:他告诉美国人"我将带回优质岗位(尤其对无大学学历群体)",但代价是外国对美国政府和股市的融资支持将减弱——因为它们的美元收入减少了。这本质上是个简单等式:经常账户余额与金融账户余额此消彼长。
至于好坏评判?从特朗普政策逻辑看完全合理。但关键在于:他的选民基础主要是未受高等教育的蓝领阶层;民主党支持者则更多是高学历、持有金融资产的富裕群体。过去 40 年全球化进程中,前者因产业外迁受损,后者因企业利润和股市上涨获益。两种世界观注定对立,而特朗普正兑现对其基本盘的承诺。
主持人:您似乎回避了价值判断。作为美国人,您个人是否认同特朗普的政策目标?
Hayes:这取决于你想取悦谁。数据显示:年收入超 10 万美元者超 50% 投票给哈里斯;低收入群体更多支持特朗普。
· 大学学历是核心分界线:高学历者从事知识工作(科技 / 金融 / 法律等);低学历者传统上从事制造业。
· 而美国过去 40 年的现实是:企业将工厂迁至外国压低工资成本 → 利润增长 → 股票回购 → 股东获益。然而美国本土的制造业工人沦为全球化牺牲品。特朗普代表后者发声,而民主党维护前者利益。没有绝对的对错,只有不同群体诉求的博弈。
主持人:您曾预测美联储不会因关税收紧货币政策,现在是否维持该判断?
Hayes:我在《BBC》文中详细论述了"财政主导"现象——美联储本质上是政府融资工具。前美联储主席伯恩斯 1979 年在南斯拉夫的著名演讲直指核心:当社会认定政府应解决所有问题(必然伴随财政扩张),央行抗通胀的职责就会让位于维持政府融资成本可控。
· 鲍威尔正处于相同困境:美国经济数据强劲(GDP 超趋势增长、失业率历史低位),他却反常地放缓 QT,并在去年 9/12 月降息。根本原因在于 36 万亿美元债务及其指数级增长的利息支出。当日本等刚性美债买家因关税减少美元收入时,美联储必须接盘——鲍威尔最近已明确表态:
· 将减少 QT 规模;考虑用 MBS 到期资金转购美债;称关税通胀影响是"暂时性"(重蹈 2022 年覆辙)。
· 这充分暴露其真实立场:确保财政部获得廉价融资。特朗普所谓"将赤字率从 7% 降至 3%"根本不是真正的紧缩,而是通过名义 GDP 增长稀释债务——比特币将在这场法币泛滥中与黄金同步上涨。
主持人:您此前预测比特币会先突破 11 万,而非跌破 7.65 万,现在是否修正观点?
Hayes:维持原判断,7.65 万是去年 3 月低点,11 万是 1 月 20 日特朗普就职时创下的历史高点。因为全球流动性即将暴增:美联储 / 欧央行 / 日央行都将被迫放水,比特币在通缩崩溃和通胀爆发两种情境下都会受益
主持人: 你提到比特币可能会与传统市场脱钩,那你认为比特币的未来价格走势如何?
Arthur Hayes: 我认为比特币的价格可能会在未来几个月内迎来反弹。我曾预测比特币将突破 110,000 美元,然后可能会一路涨到 250,000 美元。这一切都取决于全球流动性以及美联储和其他主要经济体的货币政策。
主持人:对 Hyperliquid 最近发生的事情有什么看法?
Arthur Hayes:很明显,我认为人们需要认识到,很多项目中的去中心化只是一个理想。Hyperliquid 在这方面的立场很清楚。虽然我不了解他们的技术细节,但这看起来像是中心化控制。我们在 BitMEX 处理过类似的问题,高杠杆、低流动性的合约容易被利用。我认为 Hyperliquid 的开发者应该借鉴其他主要交易所(包括复制 BitMEX 模型的那些)的经验。他们可能需要更仔细地审查他们的保证金政策和清算机制,以避免再次发生类似事件。这种看似去中心化项目中的中心化行为并不新鲜,BitMEX 和其他主要交易所也曾面临过类似问题。
其次,其实大多数人可能更关心价格、速度和费用。只要交易体验良好且盈利,他们不太关心底层是如何运作的。从用户的角度来看,只要他们得到补偿并能继续交易,他们可能并不在意。
这确实是去中心化的两难境地。投资者和交易员需要权衡使用去中心化平台的风险,包括可能被不良行为者利用以及可能面临的监管压力。平台团队也需要考虑这些问题,但他们划出的界限可能并不总是完全一致。这仍然是一个持续辩论的问题,没有明确的对错答案。
主持人: 那你对于 Circle 即将上市有什么看法?
Arthur Hayes: 老实说,我认为 Circle 的 IPO 并不值得投资。Circle 的商业模式依赖于净利差,而它的客户基础已经有了很多竞争者,特别是 Tether。
此外,Circle 在很大程度上依赖 Coinbase 作为分销渠道,他们完全依赖 Coinbase 的分销部门才能生存,因为他们大部分的净利息收入都给了 Coinbase,然后 Coinbase 再进行分销。所以我为什么要买 Circle 的 IPO 呢?如果你想拥有领头羊,直接买 Coinbase 就好了。
主持人: 你对目前加密行业的投资机会怎么看?你目前关注哪些项目?
Arthur Hayes:我们的投资策略是严格控制价格,不会盲目跟风投资热门项目。现在市场上很多项目的估值过高,特别是早期阶段的项目,所以我们现在更倾向于投资那些经过市场洗礼,已经跌得很低但仍具备高质量的项目。
主持人:关于以太坊和 Solana,你的看法是什么?你认为哪个会更有前景?
Arthur Hayes:从风险回报的角度来看,我认为以太坊更有潜力。
尽管以太坊目前被很多人看作不太受欢迎的资产,但正是这种「被讨厌」的资产,在市场反弹时通常会表现最好。Solana 虽然在近期的市场中表现不错,但它的未来发展面临一些不确定性。
我始终坚持逆向投资原则——在新周期中寻找最被市场唾弃的资产。当前以太坊就是典型例子,作为最受质疑的主流 L1,它完全具备先于 Solana 重返 2021 年接近 5000 美元历史高点的潜力,这种市场情绪与价值背离创造了绝佳机会。
所以如果你问我投资哪个,我更倾向于以太坊。以太坊在整个加密生态系统中的地位仍然不可忽视。尤其是在去中心化应用(dApp)和智能合约方面,以太坊仍然是最具竞争力的基础链。只要它能够应对扩展性的问题,它仍然有很大的增长潜力。
主持人: 回到比特币,你曾提到过比特币可能会达到 250,000 美元,那你觉得这种情况什么时候可能发生?
Arthur Hayes:这取决于全球的货币政策。我认为,如果全球主要经济体继续扩张货币供应,金融市场将会充满丰厚的法币流动性。这样一来,比特币作为一种抗通胀资产,将会迎来新一轮的上涨。因此,250,000 美元并不是不可能的目标,特别是在 2025 年左右。
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